Migrating away from Exchange to Linux or Open Source?

A recent survey of IT managers and senior executives published by a large and very well-respected consulting firm found that nearly one quarter of respondents will migrate away from Exchange and to open-source and Linux-based servers over the next 12 to 18 months.

While I'm sure that the methodology for this survey was sound, and while I have great respect for the consulting firm that conducted the survey, I think it's unlikely that nearly one in four organizations (and, by extension, nearly in four users) will migrate to open-source and Linux-based servers over the next 550 days or so.

Why? For two reasons. First, it's unlikely that 30+ million users will migrate to a completely new set of messaging systems in such a short period of time. Second, assuming that this many users and organizations will migrate away from Exchange assumes that there will be no competitive response from Microsoft, such as special licensing deals or other inducements to stay with Exchange. That's unlikely to happen either.

Again, this post is not meant to disparage anyone's research or analysis. In fact, our own research finds that a growing proportion of organizations will migrate toward Linux and other open-source messaging systems and away from Exchange. I simply don't believe that the migration will be as dramatic as some believe it will be. Further, I believe that the migration will be significant, but slow enough that the number of seats deployed on Exchange AND on Linux and open-source platforms will both rise as the total number of messaging seats increases over the next few years.

Your thoughts?